eBusiness Weekly
Africa Moyo
Accomplished author and lecturer at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, Professor Stephen Chan, has joined the various opinion polls that have suggested President Mnangagwa will win the July 30 polls.
Last week, Prof Chan said the harmonised elections would be “historic” in that they are the first to be held in a post Robert Mugabe era.
Prof Chan told the SOAS Blog that squabbles rocking the main opposition MDC-T, particularly since the death of founding president Mr Morgan Tsvangirai in February this year, are likely to hand President Mnangagwa the victory.
“. . . I think that his (former president Mugabe) party and his successor President Mnangagwa will probably win. The opposition has not had a very good beginning to its campaign,” said Prof Chan.
“It’s former leader died without anointing a successor; there have been all kinds of squabbles as to who that successor should be and their late start means that they may not be able to make up the headroom that (President) Mnangagwa has been able to achieve.
“So without needing to cheat, I think the ruling party is likely to win this particular election.”
The cheating that Prof Chan is talking about is seen by political commentators as a mirage.
Many opposition politicians in the country also suspect that they are cheated of electoral victory.
However, no one has availed empirical evident of how they are cheated in polls.
The late Mr Tsvangirai used to cite voter intimidation particularly in the rural areas.
But in 2013, the country held a violence-free election and the situation has improved even more, with no cases of violence up to now.
Opposition parties are campaigning freely across the country, with the MDC Alliance staging several peaceful demonstration across the country.
Last Wednesday, the MDC Alliance also held another demonstration where it raised concerns over the printing of ballot papers.
MDC Alliance supporters converged at Africa Unity Square and marched along Jason Moyo Avenue on their way to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) where officials, Morgen Komichi, Tendai Biti and Douglas Mwonzora were expected to hand over their petition.
After handing the petition, MDC Alliance supporters were back on the streets going to Africa Unity Square where their presidential candidate, Advocate Nelson Chamisa eventually addressed them.
Who will win the poll?
Given the freeness and fairness of the July 30 campaign period, who will win the elections?
Several opinion polls, including Prof Chan, have suggested that the incumbent, President Mnangagwa will win the poll, but what margin?
My view is that the election will be closely fought, particularly the presidential one, mainly because of the high number of contestants.
There are 23 presidential candidates but on the basis of attendance at rallies and discussion in the public sphere, President Mnangagwa of ZANU-PF and Advocate Chamisa of MDC Alliance are set to get the lion’s share of votes.
A few more candidates such as former vice president Dr Joice Mujuru, leader of the MDC-T splinter Dr Thokozani Khupe and Retired Brigadier General Ambrose Mutinhiri; have the potential to grab considerable votes.
Brig Gen Mutinhiri is being lobbied by founding National Patriotic Front (NPF), Patrick Zhuwao, who contends that their party candidate has no chance, even in hell, to win the presidential race.
But if he decides to run, especially amid reports that ballot papers for the presidential poll have been printed, he stands to steal a few votes — of note more than 1 percent — from the main contenders.
I expect President Mnangagwa to garner anything between 51 percent and 57 percent of the total ballots cast, making him the outright winner with no possibility for a run-off.
Advocate Chamisa will come second with between 35 percent and 43 percent of the total votes cast while the rest of the candidates, led by Dr Mujuru, Dr Khupe and Brig Gen Mutinhiri, get no more than 8 percent of votes.
There is sentiment across the country that Advocate Chamisa was the most popular in the country judging by views from mainly youths, but empirical evidence suggest that most of the people claiming to be his supporters are not registered to vote.
ZANU-PF has been able to encourage its supporters to register to vote and good chances are that the bulk of the people attending the party’s campaign rallies are registered.
So, the rest of the candidates, principally Alliance of the People’s Agenda (APA) leader Dr Nkosana Moyo, will be humiliated given their shoddy campaigning and general lack of preparedness.
Therefore, I foresee a President Mnangagwa win on the basis of the economic and political reforms he has instituted since assuming office in November last year.
Further, the party has been visible across the country, with all opposition parties struggling to raise funds to print posters.
The MDC Alliance is relying on begging for funds and is also raising some money from selling party paraphernalia.
However, the loose coalition of opposition parties has compensated the lack of funds with countrywide campaigns.
Dr Mujuru has seldom been visible while Dr Moyo’s door-to-door campaigns have not gained traction.
